Alternative hedges against market volatility

Alternative hedges against market volatility

Whenever markets go through a period of high volatility there are a handful of assets investors turn to for safety: gold, the dollar, the yen, the Swiss franc and (ordinarily) government bonds.

But during this latest bout of uncertainty, investors have found the usual harbours from financial storms to be either vastly overvalued or victims of the same forces that have sent markets equity spiralling.

Gold has hit multiple record highs since the start of the year and last week shot past the $1,800 mark for the first time.

While some analysts predict the precious metal will reach as high as $2,000 per ounce before its rally runs out of steam, it still seems a high price to buy into it.

Andrew Merricks, head of investments at Skerritt Consultants, says: 'We have done well from gold. It has been a safe haven and yes it's looking expensive but it's still going up when other assets are going down. We have taken a little bit of profit on some of the gold we were holding though.'

Both the yen and the Swiss franc are also heavily overbought, which led their respective central banks to intervene last week in an attempt to stop their currencies from appreciating any further.

David Coombs, head of multi-asset investment at Rathbones Asset Management, says: 'I actually sold some Swiss franc denominated bonds recently, I made 25-30 per cent on a gilt, but I would not be pouring into it at these levels because it's hurting the Swiss government and the current rate can't be sustained.'

Although authorities' interventions to rebalance exchange rates have rarely had the desired effect, Coombs says at some stage the market will turn back around and the potential downside for Swiss franc and yen is huge.

The G7 countries have also pledged to work together if necessary to normalise forex markets if they don't readjust themselves soon.

Andrew Wilson, head of investment at Towry, says: 'Normal safe havens are effectively at record highs and can't be picked up at a reasonable price.'

The crisis in confidence that has befallen sovereign debt has also meant government bonds no longer hold the appeal they once had either.

Wilson says his clients' portfolios now hold the lowest ever exposure to government bonds and gilts as the risk of holding them is 'just too great'.

The high level of public borrowing and spending in many Western economies over recent decades means their deficits have in many cases overtaken their national GDP levels.

And following the debt crises that have engulfed the US and the eurozone, investors' belief that governments can service their borrowing has been shaken.

Compounding this problem has been the downgrading of sovereign debt by the big ratings agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch.

What's the alternative?

So with all the traditional safe havens out of reach or out of bounds, what assets can investors look to in order to safeguard their portfolios?

The first factor to consider is the length of time you are looking to hold the assets.

Coombs says although cash is paying next to nothing at the moment, and with inflation factored in is actually decreasing in value, over a 12-month period it is the best way to keep your money.

Merricks agrees with this: 'At least you are not losing cash. So far it's not a banking crisis, just a sovereign debt crisis.'

But for many, the idea of wallowing in cash will not sit well.

For these individuals, Wilson suggests some exposure to managed futures and volatility funds, as these have served his clients well in recent times.

Managed futures are an alternative investment tool that is useful for hedging against equities and bonds because of its low correlation to their performance.

Accounts in managed futures enable investors to take long and short positions on futures contracts and options on commodities, global interest rates, equity indices and currency markets.

Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs) manage the accounts and must register with the US government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission and go through rigorous checks before they can offer the service.

Coombs explains that CTAs are 'trend followers' and while the volatility on their funds is quite high their correlation with stock markets is low. 'This strategy went well in 2008,' he adds.

For investors who find the idea of CTAs a little intimidating, or who are looking at their portfolios over a two to three-year period, large-cap companies could be their panacea.

Firstly, following the recent sell-off, many large caps are trading at value levels well below their long-term average.

Wilson says that while there is compelling event and political risk, he is encouraged by opportunities and thinks investors can average down the cost of their equities by hunting some bargains.

Read: Find bargain shares amid market mayhem for more tips on which firms could be ripe for your portfolio.

Prior to the last few weeks, Wilson says there were a lot of people who were reluctant bulls in the market: 'They did not really believe in the market and its fundamentals, but they didn't want to miss out. They are getting flushed out at the moment. That will all flush through the system, then we will see where it stabilises and get some cheap assets.'

Coombs agrees that large cap, high-yielding, value stocks could be the best bet over the medium term. 'Microsoft, McDonald's, GlaxoSmithKline and Unilever will all be around in three years' time,' he explains.

But Merricks urges caution: 'I will be buying equities, but not yet. Some of the pharmaceuticals are looking incredibly cheap and high-yielding equities must be attractive at some point, but we are still going through the selling stage. What I've been saying to my clients is I would rather miss out on a 5 per cent gain than get in just before another 35 per cent drop, and either are possible at this stage.

'It is more of a gamble than an investment if you buy equities at the moment and it is a lot harder to make losses back than it is to miss out on the first bounce.'

Merricks admits companies are looking resilient, with strong balance sheets and money to spend. For this reason he says they are more attractive than countries at the moment and predicts a bull market for corporate bonds over the next few months.

'It's one of the safer places to go if you are looking for a return of 4.5-5 per cent right now,' he concludes.

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