It is the third anniversary of the portfolio and it has been celebrated in a subdued way, with a slightly below-par performance in the month under review. After a spell of underperformance in earlier times, however, our selections have regained some ground in the past six months and the list is now more or less level pegging with the market.

It is also worth remembering that we have deliberately chosen shares with a relatively low-risk profile, and for these to perform as they have shows some vindication of this cautious policy. Lastly, the 37 per cent return seen in the portfolio over this three-year period represents compound growth of 11 per cent a year. Long-term returns from equities, adjusted for inflation, are reckoned to be about 6.5 per cent a year, so this performance comfortably tops that number.

This is no time for complacency, however, and rather like a football manager, we need to make sure we are fielding the best players from those available to us.

So which of the current team faces relegation to the ‘sin bin’? It seems to me that HSBC is the most likely candidate. I have stuck with HSBC through thick and thin over the past three years, and it remains one of the sector’s best capitalised banks. But though the recent mis-selling episode is very minor indeed in the context of the company’s £90 bilion market capitalisation, it does highlight how complex and highly regulated the banking business is in the current climate, and how little investors can really know about these intricate operations.

I am therefore selling HSBC at the current price of 508p, which raises exactly £3,800 after commission charges and lifts the portfolio’s cash to £5,215. For a new portfolio constituent I am looking in a completely different area, for a share that I think will do well in any economic recovery phase.

It may seem early to be looking for opportunities like this, but the market discounts ahead, and the performance of JP Morgan US Smaller Companies shows that there are signs of life in the US economy, which should be a big influence on the shares I have picked.

The company in question is Lonmin, which is one of the main global producers of platinum. The reason is that platinum, which is much scarcer than gold, normally sells at a significant premium to the yellow metal.

Currently, however, it sells at a slight discount to the gold price, despite higher production costs in South Africa, where Lonmin's operations are located. Higher operating costs tend to put a floor under the price of the metal. Currently, however, these have been offset by a weak rand relative to the dollar. Lonmin’s production costs are currently running just short of $1,000 an ounce.

All it will take is a revival in industrial demand for platinum, or some supply-side shocks, for the traditional balance between gold and platinum to be restored. One of the main uses for platinum is in automotive catalytic converters. It also functions as a substitute for gold in jewellery if the price is right.

Some savvy financial advisers are tipping platinum as the next big mover in the precious metals market, partly because the industry sees shortage of mine supply as a key medium-term issue.

For various reasons, it’s hard for UK investors to buy physical platinum directly at a reasonable price, so the next best thing is to buy shares in a mining company that produces it. Lonmin also has the advantage of being a big, well financed producer, extracting around 750,000 ounces of platinum a year. Gearing is relatively low, and the company is generating solid cash flow.

Lonmin’s share price is pretty much an exact reproduction of the price of platinum in dollars, so a recovery back to normality in terms of the ratio against the gold price should see, other things being equal, a big boost in the share price. Nothing is certain, of course, but that is what I am hoping will unfold – or at least be discounted by the market – in the course of 2012.

I am buying 400 shares for the portfolio at the current price of £10.50, leaving the portfolio with just short of £1,000 in cash. No other changes in the portfolio are contemplated for the moment.

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