David Jane

Why we are strengthening portfolios with hard assets

The global economy is transitioning from a long period of falling inflation and interest rates to one of gradually rising inflation and interest rates. While we don’t think we’ll see this shift occurring rapidly, we do think the disinflationary forces of the past few decades are now fading or even reversing.

Will US dollar strength continue?

We don’t often cover the topic of currencies, given that as a rule we endeavour to keep the level of currency risk in our portfolios contained. This is on the basis that currency moves are relatively unpredictable and there’s no long-term expected return from an overseas currency. However, from time to time markets appear to bake in a consensus that seems inconsistent with the facts.

What can investors learn from the World Cup?

Having seen many of the large, historically successful countries fall to supposedly weaker opponents, the lesson is to carefully consider all possible outcomes rather than apply a high degree of certainty to your preferred or expected outcome. The odds of an underdog winning a football match are much higher than we believe, just like the chances of an investment view coming right precisely as you expect are much less than your instincts lead you to believe.