The global economy is transitioning from a long period of falling inflation and interest rates to one of gradually rising inflation and interest rates. While we don’t think we’ll see this shift occurring rapidly, we do think the disinflationary forces of the past few decades are now fading or even reversing.
We don’t often cover the topic of currencies, given that as a rule we endeavour to keep the level of currency risk in our portfolios contained. This is on the basis that currency moves are relatively unpredictable and there’s no long-term expected return from an overseas currency. However, from time to time markets appear to bake in a consensus that seems inconsistent with the facts.
Having seen many of the large, historically successful countries fall to supposedly weaker opponents, the lesson is to carefully consider all possible outcomes rather than apply a high degree of certainty to your preferred or expected outcome. The odds of an underdog winning a football match are much higher than we believe, just like the chances of an investment view coming right precisely as you expect are much less than your instincts lead you to believe.
Valuation of bonds has become distorted due to seemingly indiscriminately buying.
Chinese internet stocks could be less risky than western says David Jane, manager of Miton’s multi-asset fund range.
David Jane, manager of Miton’s multi-asset fund range explains why he is looking ta India, South Africa and agriculture.
Inflation could rise more rapidly than expected and cause an interest rate shock, says Miton's David Jane.
As the long bull market continues, there’s plenty of fear that rapid tightening will lead to a market correction. Will it happen?
Little is written about the risk of not participating in bull markets. For long-term investors, that's equally important.
A number of recent news stories support our view that the downside risk to the internet monoliths may be increasing.