Typically, in the context of history, a recession has occurred within the following 18 months on average, when the yield curve inverts.
Inflation now exceeds the Bank of England target in the wake of wage growth, with energy bills and council tax to blame.
Employees’ wages grew by 3.9% between March and May this year, the highest rate of growth since June 2008.
The UK economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time in seven years, sparking fears of a recession.
The picture would have been even bleaker if the pound had not slumped over the period.
The number of people in work rose by 99,000 in the three months to March to 32.7 million, although wage growth fell.
A report from a House of Lords Committee calls for much of the help for older generations to be curtailed.
The UK economy continues to undershoot its inflation target despite record low unemployment.
UK public debt surplus is at its highest ever level for January, we run through the reasons why.